The latest changes to the Senate’s tax bill will dramatically increase the debt. The reason is very simple: all of the benefits promised taxpayers expire at the end of 2025. This means that without another bill passing later, beginning in 2026 every taxpayer will see a substantial tax increase. Since the politics of raising everyone’s taxes are terrible, we know Republicans will make the individual portions of their tax bill permanent before 2026. In doing so, they will add trillions to the debt.
It’s important to note that the huge corporate tax cut is made permanent immediately. So, Republicans care enough about corporations to guarantee their tax cut. People, on the other hand, not so much.
In order for their tax bill to comply with the Byrd Rule, Republicans must make it look like the bill will not add to the deficit beyond the 10-year budgetary period created in their budget resolution. Under the terms of their budget resolution, Republicans can add 1.5 trillion dollars to the debt over the next 10 years. Obviously, a tax cut that will add 1.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade will continue adding to the debt beyond the next decade. By pretending the individual tax cuts will expire, Republicans can satisfy the Byrd Rule and lie about the debt America will see so that corporations and the wealthy can get a huge tax cut.